Projected Benefits of the Doha Round Hinge on Misleading Trade Models

March 8, 2007

Projected welfare gains from trade liberalization are derived from global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, which are based on highly unrealistic assumptions.

In this SCEPA Policy Note, the authors analyze the foundation of CGE models and argue that their predictions are often misleading. They find that any possible Doha trade agreement is likely to introduce substantial macroeconomic risk for developing countries, and particularly sub Saharan Africa.

Authors: Lance Taylor and Rudiger von Arnim  
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